Today I will attempt to provide my current market outlook for Bitcoin, and as best as possible provide my late 2023 price prediction as honestly and as accurately as I can.
During the course of late 2022, I attended a Finance Summit in Istanbul, where I laid out the case for Bitcoin trade toward the $42,000 level at some point in 2023.
This was based upon the fact that Bitcoin was heavily oversold in late 2022 and there was some interest on-chain and technical divergence extending towards the $40,000 area.
Moreover, Bitcoin had some major technical confluences that were sitting around $42,000, so this was really a spot I thought Bitcoin could test towards in 2023.
Fast forward to the present moment in time and Bitcoin is waiting for a spot ETF approval. Possibly in October 2023 or even, god forbid, as late as early as 2024.
My current thinking is that I will have probably nailed the 2023 price prediction is we do see a spot ETF approval take place. This would probably put a rocket behind Bitcoin to quickly trade to $36,000 and then $42,000.
From there, I am thinking we could see some profit taking in early-2024 ahead of the next halving, which could cause a nice buying opportunity in the low $30,000s.
Now, here's the thing. If we don't see a spot ETF approval in October of 2023 then Bitcoin could be very shaky as it would lead to lost confidence in this happening.
This also leaves considerable time for Bitcoin to be influenced by other market forces. These are likely to be negative.
Let's face it, the global economy does not tend to do well in the winter months, and especially with the rise in energy prices and demand for energy during the winter months.
Based on the slowing Chinese economy, very high energy costs, and a very tepid rebound from COVID-19 in terms of key economic indicators, I'd say this leaves Bitcoin pretty vulnerable.
I think in the best case scenario Bitcoin could see a slow and painful drift toward the $22,000 area, which could present a cracking buying opportunity in late 2023.
In such a scenario I would look for slowly falling price action, and plenty of major on-chain changes around $22,000 to $23,000 as a sign the low could be in.
For the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could get absolutely, trigger some major stop losses, sweep the current lows of 2023, and fall towards the $15,000 to $14,000 area.
Such a major drop could probably only happen due to recessionary fears or some type of crypto event, or even a broader market event on the scale of COVID-19.
For me, I would far prefer an ETF approval, but those risks are still finally balanced, as we really don't know if that decision is going to happen from the SEC.
So in summary, the three scenarios I have laid out today are an ETF-inspired ramp to $42,000, a slow drift towards $22,000, or a major price collapse to $14,000.
Going forward, it's certainly going to be interesting, and if you like this type of Bitcoin commentary, check out my daily newsletter.
